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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-08-03T12:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-08-03T12:23Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/47943/-1
CME Note: CME observed to the SE in STEREO A COR2 and GOES CCOR-1. The source is a filament eruption on the south central disk centered around S35W05. The filament in SDO AIA 304 begins to lift as early as approx. 2026-08-03T03:00Z, erupting and dissippating from approx. 2026-08-03T07:00Z to 2026-08-03T12:00Z, with brightening on-disk. Also observed in SDO AIA 193 as a wide swath of dimming starting approx. 2026-08-03T10:00Z which migrates southeastward for several hours covering a large area of the south-central disk. Also observed as the filament, field line movement, dimming, and brightening in STEREO A EUVI 195/304 at 2026-08-03T07:55Z and 2026-08-03T08:15Z respectively. | Preliminarily closed out as non-arrival, investigating possible arrival around 2026-08-08T05:54Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-08-07T16:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/47946/1
Model Inputs:
2026-08-03T12:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-32.0, Lat.=-24.0, Speed=347.0, HalfAngle=27.0, Time21.5=2026-08-03T22:33Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-08-07T16:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:
Europa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-08-08T06:00Z
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-08-08T10:00Z
Juice with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-08-08T23:00Z

Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_223300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_223300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_223300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_223300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_223300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_223300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_223300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_223300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_223300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_223300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_223300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_223300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_223300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_223300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_223300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_223300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260803_223300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 94.20 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) on 2026-08-03T17:48Z

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